A mere eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the boss discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough question to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem strangely fragile – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
